I started writing this post in 2018 but then shelved it as a draft. Well, I went back and looked over what I wrote, and in some ways so much has changed — and much hasn’t. Take the current health crisis over COVID-19. Most of the world’s economic gains have evaporated as whole regions of the world are sheltering-in-place to curb the spread of the virus. Medical researchers race to create a vaccine, are trying to test those who have the virus, and also understand if people can get reinfected. That’s a lot to accomplish in a short period of time, yet progress is being made in increments.
Locally — and more specifically in the San Francisco Bay Area — mayors were quick to enact measures to keep the virus from spreading. First, by declaring a State of Emergency weeks before the infection rate went beyond single digits, and then making the economically painful choice of ordering shelter-in-place measures on March 16th in San Francisco — with other counties in the Bay Area doing the same shortly after that.
And then there’s Trump…
Clearly, there’s a lot to cover with this guy — but it seems like we go over the same ground every day. So yes, while the specific issues have changed, the cycle seems to be the same: Scandal. Outrage. Repeat. Re-reading parts of this post two years after I wrote it, it’s clear that the many scandals of the Trump Administration will fill pages of books for decades to come. So, what can this post add — besides noise? Well, I don’t pretend to have any special insight or sagely advice, but maybe in the daily deluge of outrage, perhaps there are a few things one can glean to explain how — given the nearly endless amount of scandal that has surrounded this presidency — his base of support has remained relatively unchanged. Oh, and just so you know what’s been written in 2020, and what was written in 2018, all 2018 thoughts will be highlighted in blue.
Episode One: Russia
We live in an age where information (a lot of really bad information) comes at us like water from a fire hose. But what does information do for us? Does it educate, enlighten, illuminate the complexities of the world? Some of it can, but mostly it seems that for every blog post, article, radio rant, an argument on TV, or a Reddit battle, rarely do people change their minds about a political issue when presented certain facts.
Take the Russian Federation’s influence in the 2016 election. There’s an F.B.I. investigation into the actors involved, and whether members of the Trump campaign conspired with Russian operatives to elect Donald Trump to extract future political favors as compensation for that partnership. Robert Mueller’s team has indicted (as in accused and charged with crimes) almost 20 people. That’s not nothing. That means 20 individuals committed criminal acts that relate to conspiring with a foreign government during a presidential election to give the advantage to a particular candidate (in this case, Trump).
How high up the political food chain does this conspiracy go is what Mueller is trying to find out. Trump, for his part, maintains his “no collusion” innocence (“Collusion” is not a legal term. Conspiracy is — and that’s what’s being investigated). But his words and actions in trying to hamper the investigation look and sound like a man guilty of crimes. We’ll see where all this goes, but there’s a counter-narrative being spun by Trump and his supporters: the “Deep State” is trying to reverse the results of an election of a president because they don’t like the guy. Moreover, the crimes of Hillary Clinton, F.B.I. agents, some of the leadership, and even some Republicans should be investigated — rather than a “witch hunt” against Trump ginned up by bitter swamp people. Depending on your political point of view, you’re going to accept or reject certain facts based on your political identity. We see this play out in the news media where “perspectives” and whataboutism pervade — and mostly from the right.
Well, how did this all go? We know now that Mueller essentially punted much of the alleged criminal acts of Trump to Congress. He wrote in his report that he was bound by a Justice Department memo claiming a sitting president cannot be indicted for crimes while in office. Those who followed Mueller’s work with detective-like interest on MSNBC, The Washington Post, New York Times, and Politico, were clearly disappointed in Mueller’s conclusions. The prose wasn’t clear for most readers because his team was writing a kind of legal brief. The executive summaries helped to clarify things, but those looking for the “gotcha” moment, we’re bound to be disappointed. Plus, it didn’t help that the book was over 400 pages long. How many Americans will read a 400-page book these days?
Episode Two: The Clinton Factor
Sometimes in episodic TV, a show’s narrative arc isn’t always in linear order. Sometimes, there are “before we get to the next part of the story, let’s go back a little earlier.” With that in mind, here a little reminder of how the Hillary Clinton campaign played out — even with the Russians helping Trump.
Why do Democrats tend to be so accepting of unfair defeat? It seems wired in their DNA since the Ronald Reagan era when they lost two landslide elections. It didn’t help matters that when George H.W. Bush ran in 1988, the Democrats nominated a technocratic candidate in Michael Dukakis — who also lost pretty badly to Bush. Bill Clinton’s election in 1992 and again in 1996 gave Democrats hope that his third-way politics would be acceptable to voters used to Reaganism. It worked…sort of. He survived two terms and impeachment for lying about a sexual affair. For that, Al Gore lost (but just barely) to George W. Bush — and didn’t fight it hard enough after a contested vote count in Florida and the U.S. Supreme Court essentially selecting Bush as president. Barack Obama’s presidency was about righting a ship that had gone off course after two wars and a Great Recession. It took his administration eight years and a lot of stonewalling from the GOP to get the economy back to a point where things looked better, but many people just weren’t feeling it.
And then there was Hillary Clinton…
It’s also no secret that Clinton ran a lousy campaign in the “Blue Wall” states and paid for it by a low turnout of people voting for her — while Trump benefited from a surge of energetic voters. Were Trump voters in states like Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan influenced by Russian propaganda directed at them via Facebook, Twitter, and repeated by Fox News? No doubt this happened, but how do you quantify such influence? It may have just reinforced prejudices that were already there — and got Trump voters to act on those prejudices by voting. Russians also penetrated voting databases in a number of states (including those that tipped the election for Trump), but were any votes changed? Well, Jill Stein tried to find out, and the courts shut her down. So, we’re left with questions that may never get resolved. There’s also this: Hillary Clinton was a candidate with trust issues — while Trump, a pathological liar, seemed trustworthy to many voters because of his blunt assessment of his competition. Plus, compared to Trump’s racist and xenophobic bluster, Clinton was not a great campaigner who inspired people in so-called swing states to support and vote for her political vision — which was more of the same centrist policies that Obama and Bill Clinton embodied.
Episode Three: The Democrat’s Dilemma
Democrats have moved on from Clinton — even though Republicans and a lot of the media haven’t. She’s now become a person who pops up from time to time on Twitter and now with a podcast to…well, I’m not sure what she wants. To troll Trump? To offer political advice? To keep the Clinton brand going for her daughter in case she wants to run for office one day? I don’t know. I do know that the political culture among the center-left has moved on from Clinton centrism since 2016. Bernie Sanders — who is not a Democrat — deserves a lot of credit for that. His influence in the party has really pulled them from Clinton/Obama “third-way” centrism back to their New Deal roots. After the 2016 campaign, Democrats elected two men to run the DNC ( Tom Perez and Keith Ellison). Perez worked for Obama as Secretary of Labor, and Ellison comes from the Congressional Progressive Caucus and represents a kind of Bernie Sanders wing of the party. How well they’re doing depends on how you view the success of Democrats in recent special elections and primaries — which has been pretty impressive. Ellison left his deputy chair position with the DNC in 2018 to run (and win) as the State Attorney General in Minnesota
However, being against Trump is one thing, but to win elections you have to give people something to vote for (which Democrats did in 2018, and won bigly by regaining control of the House of Representatives). Right now, there’s a movement by various groups who are shocked at the swiftness of retrograde change happening in the country. They see:
- Environmental rules gutted.
- Health care is being taken away.
- The freedom of women to fully decide whether they want to carry a pregnancy to term — or not — curtailed.
- Financial regulations were put in place to prevent another Great Recession wiped out.
- Tax cuts so deep that the government won’t be able to meet its obligations.
- Attacks on immigrants and immigration.
- Racist and authoritarian behavior becoming more normalized.
- Activist right-wing judges are being appointed to the bench at a rapid rate.
- Relations with long-term NATO allies frayed.
But consider this: all of this is taking place as the unemployment rate is around 4 percent, stock market indices in the U.S. are high, consumer confidence is up, labor productivity is up, wages are up, crime is down (2017), lawful immigration rates are falling around 5 to 6 percent per quarter, refugee rates have fallen almost 88 percent (!), and people becoming naturalized citizens are up. Yes, the Obama administration handed the incoming Trump administration the keys to a house that was in really good shape (also other economies outside the U.S. were also doing well, and that helped bolster future U.S. outlooks), so that gave Trump a “Born on third base and thought he hit a home run” advantage. Now that Trump has been in power since 2017, the tax cut he signed into law is having an effect on the economy (even though it doesn’t really kick in ’til next year — but it’s enough so businesses can plan for future growth). If you factor out Trump’s dumpster fire of a personality, the almost daily drama coming out of the Executive Branch, and, yes, the Russia investigation, the Trump administration is delivering to its base of support. For example, for your consideration, have a look at this list of things that his supporters are very happy about:
- Tax cuts (This is a bedrock article of faith among Republicans. The more you cut taxes, the more business prospers and the more New Deal/Great Society programs erode).
- Pro-life policies (The Trump administration proposed a new rule that would take federal funding away from clinics that perform abortions or provide referrals to clinics that have abortion services).
- Pro-Evangelical Christian support (There’s now a White House Office of Faith-Based and Community Initiatives).
- Supreme Court appointments — and many appointments to the federal bench.
- Deregulating industries that supported him (There are many, but coal, oil, and gas are some of the big winners).
- Getting out of the Iran nuclear deal had the intended or unintended consequence of boosting oil prices — which helps supporters like the Koch brothers and other multinationals.
- Attacking illegal immigration pays a psychological wage to white Trump supporters who think they’re being displaced both culturally and economically by immigrants with brown skin and non-Christian beliefs.
If you look at these laws, policies, and rule changes, they are not that different from GOP presidents since the Reagan administration. Tax cuts, anti-abortion views, subtle and not-so-subtle racist rhetoric, slashing business regulations, and supporting the oil and gas industries are still part of the GOP’s agenda. Is it any wonder why GOP voters support Trump at almost 90 percent? His administration is delivering on a GOP wishlist of policies. He may be an abhorrent person who is difficult to get along with, but there’s no doubt that he’s making good on what he campaigned on. There are many of his supporters who don’t like Trump’s style, but they certainly admire that he is being a transformative president in ways that Obama and Bill Clinton weren’t.
Now with the COVID-19 pandemic, it seems the devil’s bargain the GOP has made with Trump may (and I stress may) lead to his undoing more than this laundry list of offenses even could:
- Impeachment.
- Bribery.
- Conspiracy.
- Obstruction of justice.
- Money laundering.
- Violations of the Emoluments Clause of the U.S. Constitution.
- In violation of financial and election laws in the State of New York.
- Using campaign money as “hush money” to hide an affair with an adult film actress (violation of campaign finance laws).
Any of the above is an impeachable offense and grounds for removal from office — if it were any other president. But we have a guy in the office who has a lot of protection from GOP enablers, hypocrites, and a strong media messaging machine. Why? Well, just look at what the GOP is getting for allowing these clear constitutional violations to continue without them holding him accountable. Democrats have been clear about what side of the rule of law they are on when it comes to Trump, but that’s only endeared them to their base of support — and maybe Justin Amash.
There’s a lot to complain about with the Democratic party — because they seem to have a knack for losing the plot when articulating a political agenda. However, once in power, they are the only party that has proven itself capable of governing in a way that adheres to the traditions and laws of a liberal-democratic state. Well, now that it looks like Joe Biden may be the candidate the Democrats nominate as their liberal-democratic hope, there’s a lot riding on his ability to forge a center-left coalition that includes independent voters and disaffected Republicans to steer the ship of state and the economy out of this viral and political pandemic of COVID-19 and TRUMP-45.
